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Notice of Staff Workshop on the
Summer 2006 Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook



The California Energy Commission (Energy Commission) staff will conduct a workshop on the electricity supply and demand outlook for the summer of 2006.

The workshop will be held:

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2005
10 a.m.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION
1516 Ninth Street
First Floor, Hearing Room B
Sacramento, California

(Wheelchair Accessible)

To participate in the meeting via teleconference,
Please call 888-323-2711 by 10:05 a.m.
Passcode: 27630
Call Leader: David Ashuckian


Purpose of Workshop

The Energy Commission staff is seeking the participation of the state's major investor-owned and municipal utilities, including Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE), San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E), Los Angeles Department of Water & Power (LADWP) and Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD), and other interested parties in this staff workshop. The Energy Commission staff requests the utilities, and other interested parties to provide their supply and demand outlooks for summer 2006 and comment on the Energy Commission staff's draft report Summer 2006 Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook.

The Energy Commission staff specifically requests the major utilities present their peak demand forecast for the 2006 summer. All presenters should be prepared to discuss methodologies or approaches for making weather adjustments to their forecasts.


Background

The Summer 2006 Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook provides the Energy Commission staff's current assessment of physical electricity resource adequacy in California. It evaluates the capability of the electricity system to provide power to specific geographic areas in California to meet expected electricity demand. The analysis was prepared in close coordination and consultation with the California Public Utilities Commission and the California Independent System Operator (CA ISO).

This assessment includes several changes as a result of comments received during our Committee Workshop held March 21, 2005, on the Summer 2005 Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook. Two consistent comments from workshop participants were:

  1. Demand response and interruptible load programs are essential to the planning and operation of the daily system and these resources should be included in the outlook tables; and

  2. Using above-average forced outages and transmission limitations in the 1-in-2 scenario is too conservative and could result in the procurement of unnecessary resources.

This outlook provides assessments for four regions, California Statewide, CA ISO Control Area, CA ISO North of Path 26 (NP26), and CA ISO South of Path 26 (SP26). The CA ISO Control Area is divided into Northern and Southern California because there are transmission constraints south of the transmission segment known as Path 26, which limits the transfer of electricity from north to south.

A major change from the 2005 outlook is provided in Chapter 2 of the staff draft report. Staff is developing a preliminary study that includes the probabilities of demand and forced outages variations in the Southern California portion of the CA ISO Control Area. These two criteria were selected for the initial study because data was readily available, plus demand and outage fluctuations have significant effects on the overall operation of the system. Hot temperatures have the single largest effect on electricity demand.

The Staff Draft Report will soon be available on the Energy Commission Web site www.energy.ca.gov/2006_summer_outlook/documents/.


Public Participation

The Energy Commission's Public Adviser, Margret J. Kim, provides the public assistance in participating in Energy Commission activities. If you want information on how to participate in this forum, please contact the Public Adviser's Office at (916) 654-4489 or toll free at (800) 822-6228, by FAX at (916) 654-4493, or by e-mail at [pao@energy.state.ca.us]. If you have a disability and require assistance to participate, please contact Lou Quiroz at (916) 654-5146 at least five days in advance.

Please direct all news media inquiries to Claudia Chandler, Assistant Executive Director, at (916) 654-4989 or by e-mail at [MediaOffice@energy.state.ca.us].

For technical questions on the subject matter, please call David Ashuckian, Office Manager, (916) 654-4602 or by e-mail at [Dashucki@energy.state.ca.us].

Note: California Energy Commission's formal name is State Energy Resources Conservation and Development Commission.
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